How demand assessment techniques were used to evaluate the market landscape and product opportunity

The challenge

Our client wanted to evaluate the potential of two treatments which would offer efficacy and side effects similar to those of biologics in atopic dermatitis.

They wanted to understand more about the market landscape and how advanced treatments fit into the treatment algorithm when they are launched, as well as the potential drivers and barriers to uptake of these treatments.

The solution

We utilized a quantitative online methodology to answer the client objectives, with the sample consisting of dermatologists.

• Firstly we sized the current moderate-severe atopic dermatitis markets including current prescribing share and expected prescribing share in 2-3 years, assuming no new products will enter the market in this time period.
• We then asked the respondents to complete a choice-based conjoint task which included attributes and levels relevant to the advanced treatments. In order to anchor the conjoint utility results to market share we also asked respondents for their expected prescribing share assuming the base case products were available.
• Using the outputs from the conjoint analysis and applying the expected prescribing share data we were able to model expected share in the markets and how this varied as attributes for the advanced treatments changed.

To calibrate the data, we also asked respondents to provide expected prescribing share using best case and worst-case scenarios and also likelihood to prescribe the base case products.

The outcomes 

Provided our client with a report that gave both an overview of the current market and the impact of new advanced treatment launches in the future. For the future market we used the conjoint results and future market share allocation exercises to model likely market share for the two products, including the scenarios where both treatments were available and also if only one of the treatments were available.

We provided an excel simulator which enabled them to view the expected market share and how it varied when certain attributes were changed (based on the pre-defined list of attributes/levels from the conjoint exercise). The client also received an overview stating the impact of each attribute on treatment decisions and also which levels within each attribute had greater impact. Finally, we were able to also identify the likely source of business for the future products. The outputs showed the client the likely uptake of their product across various scenarios to help inform future strategy for the brands.