Case study: How we supported forecasting for a new vaccine by identifying the optimal pricing strategy

The challenge
Our client was looking to identify the price point that would maximise revenue from their new vaccine across 8 emerging markets in Latin America and Asia Pacific, as well as establish long-term projections for their forecasting model. In parallel, they needed to ensure widespread and rapid market penetration of the vaccine, taking into account factors such as consumer socio-economic group, age and household composition.

Vaccine pricing case study
Vaccine pricing case study

The challenge
Our client was looking to identify the price point that would maximise revenue from their new vaccine across 8 emerging markets in Latin America and Asia Pacific, as well as establish long-term projections for their forecasting model. In parallel, they needed to ensure widespread and rapid market penetration of the vaccine, taking into account factors such as consumer socio-economic group, age and household composition.

The solution
We implemented a multidisciplinary approach combining primary market research with secondary market data:

  • Qualitative and quantitative insights were gathered from both HCPs and consumers, to ensure a comprehensive understanding of vaccine needs, expectations and appropriate price using a randomised sequential Gabor Granger methodology
  • We established key drivers and barriers to adoption, both rational and emotional, and how to facilitate rapid uptake, to allow our client to anticipate potential issues and know how best to address them
  • Country demographics and consumer spending data were used in combination with our pricing inputs, to develop an interactive 15 year projection model. This provided robust insights into how different market behaviours would impact vaccine adoption and size the risk at each price point tested.

The outputs
Use of agile online technologies allowed us to deliver key pricing insights rapidly, meeting tight forecasting deadlines. We provided our client with a strategic report and interactive projection model. Combined, these outputs delivered a clear guidance on the most effective pricing strategy.

In addition, qualitative insights on how to overcome key adoption barriers were accompanied by quantitative data demonstrating uptake of the vaccine with and without intervention by the client. Finally, the fully interactive model combined adjustable price points with demographic data to provide robust modelling of penetration and revenue per market, until 2035, allowing for manual adjustment to the numbers of patients in the relevant age-group.

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